資料服務 / 未來推估
單點多模式 空間分布 推估時間比較 情境比較 單情境時序變化 多情境時序變化 資料說明

*本資料於2020年11月11日進行資料改版

未來推估,溫度是推估未來100年的改變量(單位˚C),雨量是推估未來100年的改變率(單位%)改變量(推估-基期)或是改變率((推估-基期/基期)*100)指的都是相對於基期資料來說模式推估未來100年的變化狀況。

以下分別針對TCCIP計畫使用的模式資料及觀測資料進行說明:

觀測資料

降雨及溫度的觀測資料是使用TCCIP所產製的歷史觀測網格日資料(單位為mm/day及˚C),觀測資料範圍為臺灣包含部分離島地區(119.2˚E~122.15˚E ; 21.5˚N~25.5˚N),資料時間為1960-2005年,網格解析度為0.05˚X0.05˚。

模式資料

選用IPCC AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)中的AGCM模式的日平均降雨資料(單位: mm/day)與日平均地表溫度資料(單位: ˚C),模式詳細介紹見表1。

本計畫選取源自22個研究中心,共41組完整的模式結果。經過模擬評估後各情境的模式個數分別為:RCP2.6有22個、RCP4.5有29個、RCP6.0有17個、RCP8.5有33個。使用未來推估部分為2006~2100共95年。世紀末之溫度改變量與降雨變化率之基期為1986~2005共20年。模式所使用範圍與觀測相同。

表1 33個模式說明(註:非每種情境都有33個模式)

#英文縮寫解析度(度)模式中心英文完整名稱RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
1ACCESS1.01.241X1.875CSIRO-BOMAustralian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator 1.00101
2ACCESS1.31.241X1.875CSIRO-BOMAustralian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator 1.30101
3BCC-CSM1.12.813X2.813BCCBeijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1, China1111
4BCC-CSM1.1m1.125X1.125BCCBeijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1, China, high resolution1111
5BNU-ESM2.813X2.813BNUCollege of Global Change and Earth System Science, Chian, Beijing Normal University Eath System Model1111
6CanESM22.813X2.813CCCmaCanadian Earth System Model version 21101
7CCSM40.938X1.250NCARNCAR Community Climate System Model version 4.01111
8CESM1-BGC0.938X1.250NSF-DOE-NCARNCAR Community Earth System Model version 1 with carbon cycle0101
9CESM1-CAM50.938X1.250NSF-DOE-NCARCoupled simulations from CESM1 using the atmosphere model of Community Atmosphere Model version 51111
10CMCC-CESM3.750X3.750CMCCCentro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici(CMCC) Carbon Earth System Model0001
11CMCC-CM0.750X0.750CMCCCentro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model0101
12CNRM-CM51.406X1.406CNRM-CERFACSCentre National de Recherches Meteorologiques(CNRM) Earth System Model version 5, France1101
13CSIRO-Mk3.6.01.875X1.875CSIRO-QCCCECSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia, Mk3.6 Model1111
14EC-EARTH1.125X1.125ICHECEuropean Earth System Model0001
15FGOALS-g23.000X2.813LASG-CESSFlexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2, China1101
16GFDL-CM32.000X2.500NOAA-GFDLGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version 31011
17GFDL-ESM2G2.000X2.500NOAA-GFDLGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model couple TOPAZ ocean model1111
18GFDL-ESM2M2.000X2.500NOAA-GFDLGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model couple MOM4 ocean model0111
19HadGEM2-AO1.241X1.875NIMR-KMAHadley Global Environment Model 2, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, South Korea1111
20HadGEM2-CC1.241X1.875MOHCMet Office Hadley Centre, Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Carbon Cycle0101
21HadGEM2-ES1.241X1.875MOHCMet Office Hadley Centre, Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Earth System1111
22INM-CM41.500X2.000INMInstitute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia, INMCM4.0 Model0101
23IPSL-CM5A-LR1.875X3.750IPSLInstitute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France, with LMDZ4 atmosphere model1111
24IPSL-CM5A-MR1.259X2.500IPSLIPSL-CM4A with medium resolution1111
25IPSL-CM5B-LR1.875X3.750IPSLInstitute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France, with LMDZ5 atmosphere model0101
26MIROC51.406X1.406MIROCCCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan, MIROC Model V51111
27MIROC-ESM2.813X2.813MIROCCCSR/NIES/FRCGC, MIROC, Japan, Earth System Model1111
28MIROC-ESM-CHEM2.813X2.813MIROCCCSR/NIES/FRCGC, MIROC, Japan Earth System Model with Chemistry1111
29MPI-ESM-LR1.875X1.875MPI-MMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany, Earth System Model- low resolution grid1101
30MPI-ESM-MR1.875X1.875MPI-MMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany, Earth System Model-medium resolution grid1101
31MRI-CGCM31.125X1.125MRIMeteorological Research Institute, Japan, CGCM31111
32MRI-ESM11.125X1.125MRIMeteorological Research Institute, Japan, Earth System Model version 10001
33NorESM1-M1.875X2.500NCCNorwegian Earth System Model 1 - medium resolution1111