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未來推估,溫度是推估未來100年的改變量(單位oC),雨量是推估未來100年的改變率(單位%)

改變量(推估-觀測)或是改變率((推估-觀測/觀測)*100)指的都是相對於觀測資料來說模式推估未來100年的變化狀況。

以下分別針對TCCIP計畫使用的模式資料及觀測資料進行說明:

觀測資料

    降雨及溫度的觀測資料是使用Aphrodite ( Asia Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources ) 的月平均降雨資料,單位為(mm/day),觀測資料範圍為亞洲季風區(60˚E~150˚E ; 15˚S~55˚N),資料時間為1986-2005年,網格解析度為0.25˚X0.25˚。

模式資料

    選用IPCC AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)中的41個AGCM模式的月平均降雨資料(單位: mm/day)與月平均地表溫度資料(單位: ˚C),41個模式詳細介紹見表1。

    本計畫選取源自22個研究中心,共41組完整的模式結果。各情境的模式個數分別為:RCP2.6有26個、RCP4.5有38個、RCP6.0有21個、RCP8.5有41個。使用未來推估部分為2006~2100共95年。世紀末之溫度改變量與降雨變化率之基期為1986~2005共20年。模式所使用範圍與觀測相同。

表1:41個模式說明(註:非每種情境都有41個模式)

英文縮寫 解析度(度) 模式中心 英文完整名稱
ACCESS1.0 1.241X1.875 CSIRO-BOM Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator 1.0
ACCESS1.3 1.241X1.875 CSIRO-BOM Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator 1.3
BCC-CSM1.1 2.813X2.813 BCC Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1, China
BCC-CSM1.1m 1.125X1.125 BCC Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1, China, high resolution
BNU-ESM 2.813X2.813 BNU College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Chian, Beijing Normal University Eath System Model
CCSM4 0.938X1.250 NCAR NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4.0
CESM1-BGC 0.938X1.250 NSF-DOE-NCAR NCAR Community Earth System Model version 1 with carbon cycle
CESM1-CAM5 0.938X1.250 NSF-DOE-NCAR Coupled simulations from CESM1 using the atmosphere model of Community Atmosphere Model version 5
CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2 1.875X2.500 NSF-DOE-NCAR CESM1-CAM5.1-Finite volume 2
CMCC-CESM 3.750X3.750 CMCC Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici(CMCC) Carbon Earth System Model
CMCC-CM 0.750X0.750 CMCC Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model
CMCC-CMS 1.875X1.875 CMCC Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici, Climate Model with a resolved Stratosphere
CNRM-CM5 1.406X1.406 CNRM-CERFACS Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques(CNRM) Earth System Model version 5, France
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 1.875X1.875 CSIRO-QCCCE CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia, Mk3.6 Model
CanESM2 2.813X2.813 CCCma Canadian Earth System Model version 2
EC-EARTH 1.125X1.125 ICHEC European Earth System Model
FGOALS-g2 3.000X2.813 LASG-CESS Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2, China
FIO-ESM 2.813X2.813 FIO The First Institution of Oceanography(FIO) Earth System Model, China
GFDL-CM3 2.000X2.500 NOAA-GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version 3
GFDL-ESM2G 2.000X2.500 NOAA-GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model couple TOPAZ ocean model
GFDL-ESM2M 2.000X2.500 NOAA-GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model couple MOM4 ocean model
GISS-E2-H 2.000X2.500 NASA-GISS NASA GISS ModelE version 2, HYCOM ocean model
GISS-E2-H-CC 2.000X2.500 NASA-GISS NASA GISS-E2-H with interactive terrestrial carbon cycle and oceanic bio-geochemistry
GISS-E2-R 2.000X2.500 NASA-GISS NASA GISS ModelE version 2, Russell ocean model
GISS-E2-R-CC 2.000X2.500 NASA-GISS NASA GISS-E2-R with interactive terrestrial carbon cycle and oceanic bio-geochemistry
HadGEM2-AO 1.241X1.875 NIMR-KMA Hadley Global Environment Model 2, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, South Korea
HadGEM2-CC 1.241X1.875 MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre, Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Carbon Cycle
HadGEM2-ES 1.241X1.875 MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre, Hadley Global Environment Model 2 - Earth System
INM-CM4 1.500X2.000 INM Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia, INMCM4.0 Model
IPSL-CM5A-LR 1.875X3.750 IPSL Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France, with LMDZ4 atmosphere model
IPSL-CM5A-MR 1.259X2.500 IPSL IPSL-CM4A with medium resolution
IPSL-CM5B-LR 1.875X3.750 IPSL Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France, with LMDZ5 atmosphere model
MIROC5 1.406X1.406 MIROC CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan, MIROC Model V5
MIROC-ESM 2.813X2.813 MIROC CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, MIROC, Japan, Earth System Model
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 2.813X2.813 MIROC CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, MIROC, Japan Earth System Model with Chemistry
MPI-ESM-LR 1.875X1.875 MPI-M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany, Earth System Model- low resolution grid
MPI-ESM-MR 1.875X1.875 MPI-M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany, Earth System Model-medium resolution grid
MRI-CGCM3 1.125X1.125 MRI Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, CGCM3
MRI-ESM1 1.125X1.125 MRI Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, Earth System Model version 1
NorESM1-M 1.875X2.500 NCC Norwegian Earth System Model 1 - medium resolution
NorESM1-ME 1.875X2.500 NCC Norwegian Earth System Model 1 - medium resolution with capability to be fully emission driven

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