2011/12/06

時間

議程

08:30-09:00

報 到 領 取 資 料

09:00-09:20

開 幕 式 (前瞻廳，主持人：許晃雄)

開 幕 致 詞 (國科會長官、Wei-Fu Yang, Director-General (楊偉甫))

09:20-09:40

合 影

09:40-10:00

Wei-Fu Yang, Director-General (楊偉甫)

Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs (經濟部水利署)

Act now! – The Water Resource Policy in New Age

10:00-10:20

Liang-Chun Chen, Director (陳亮全)

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (國家災害防救科技中心)

From science to application: the strategy of climate change risk assessment in Taiwan

10:20-10:40

休 息

專 題 演 講 (前瞻廳，主持人：Yueh-Hsi Wu (吳約西) + Huang-Hsiung Hsu (許晃雄))

10:40-11:20

專題演講１

Taroh Matsuno (松野 太郎)

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Projection of global environmental changes by use of an Earth System Model

11:20-12:00

專題演講２

Koutarou Takemura (竹村 公太郎)

Foundation for Riverfront Improvement and Restoration

Climate Change and Water Cycle in Japan - Flood Defense and Water Resources

12:00-13:30

午 餐 休 息

主 題 演 講

Session A  (103教室)

Climate Change and Extremes／氣候變遷與極端氣候

主持人：Mong-Ming Lu (盧孟明) + Noel S. Keenlyside

Session B  (前瞻廳)

Impact Assessment／水環境衝擊評估

主持人：Ke-Sheng Cheng (鄭克聲) + Eiichi Nakakita

13:30-14:00

主題演講Ａ1

Huang-Hsiung Hsu (許晃雄)

Research Center for Environmental Change, Academia Sinica (中央研究院環境變遷研究中心)

Changes in Winter and Summer Duration

主題演講B1

Blair P. Greimann / Yong Lai

Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group, US Bureau of Reclamation

Reservoir Sediment Management in Response to Climate Change

14:00-14:30

主題演講A2

Mong-Ming Lu (盧孟明)

Central Weather Bureau (中央氣象局)

Assessing the extremity of Taiwan rainfall extremes and their relationship with global warming

主題演講B2

Pao-Shan Yu (游保杉)

Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University (成功大學水利及海洋工程學系)

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood and Drought Disasters

14:30-15:00

主題演講A3

Tianjun Zhou (周天軍)

LASG, Chinese Academy of Sciences (中國科學院)

Climate Modeling in IAP: A CMIP Perspective

主題演講B3

Bing-Zhang Lin (林炳章)

Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (南京信息大學)

Study on Probable Maximum Precipitation under Concerns over Climate Change in terms of Flood-Protection Design Standards

15:00-15:30

休 息

15:30-16:00

主題演講A4

Pardeep Pall

ETH Zürich

Attributing the risk of weather-related extremes to anthropogenic climate change: the pilot case of the UK autumn 2000 floods, and beyond

主題演講B4

Deg-Hyo Bae (裴德孝)

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Korean Water Resources

16:00-16:30

主題演講A5

Noel S. Keenlyside

Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR)

Stratosphere’s integral role in Atlantic multi-decadal variability

主題演講B5

Sunmin Kim

Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto University

Climate Change Impact on River Flow of the Tone River Basin, Japan

2011/12/07

時間

議程

08:30-09:00

報 到 領 取 資 料

專 題 演 講 (前瞻廳，主持人：Masato Sugi)

09:00-09:30

專題演講3

Francis Zwiers

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria

Progress in Detecting Anthropogenic Influence on Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

09:30-10:00

專題演講4

Shaw-Chen Liu (劉紹臣)

Research Center for Environmental Change, Academia Sinica (中央研究院環境變遷研究中心)

Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks of Climate Models

10:00-10:20

休 息

專 題 演 講 (前瞻廳，主持人：Fong-Rong Yang (楊豐榮))

10:20-10:50

專題演講5

Christopher Dunn / Jeff Harris

Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC), US Army Corps of Engineers

Climate Change activities within the Corps of Engineers

10:50-11:20

專題演講6

Greg Withers

Office of Climate Change, Department of Environment and Resource Management, Australia

Adaptation Strategy on Climate Change for Queensland, Australia

11:20-11:50

專題演講7

Masato Sugi (杉 正人)

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Projection of typhoons using high resolution MRI-AGCMs

12:00-13:30

午 餐 休 息

主 題 演 講

Session C (103教室)

氣候變遷推估／Projection and Downscaling

主持人：Tianjun Zhou (周天軍) + Francis Zwiers

Session D (前瞻廳)

調適策略／Adaption Strategy

主持人：Chen-Shan Kung (龔誠山) + Deg-Hyo Bae

13:30-14:00

主題演講C1

Jason P. Evans

Climate Change Research Center, University of New South Wales

Regional Climate Projections, NARCliM, and small spatial/temporal scale extreme

主題演講D1

Ke-Sheng Cheng (鄭克聲)

Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Risk

14:00-14:30

主題演講C2

Hyun-Suk Kang

National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)

Global and Regional Climate Change Projection based on RCP Emission Scenarios

主題演講D2

Eiichi Nakakita (中北 英一)

Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University

Climate change impact assessment on Japanese extreme hazards and a basic proposal heading to adaptation

14:30-15:00

主題演講C3

Cheng-Ta Chen (陳正達)

Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University (臺灣師範大學地球科學系)

Regionalization of the IPCC AR4 Climate Change Projections over Taiwan : From Climatic Mean to Extreme Indices

主題演講D3

Yih-Chi Tan (譚義績)

Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University (臺大氣候天氣災害研究中心)

The Project of Adaptation Enhancement for Flood mitigation due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Kaoping River

15:00-15:30

休 息

15:30-16:00

主題演講C4

Masuo Nakano (中野 滿壽男)

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Dynamical downscaling over Taiwan using NHM-5km

主題演講D4

Shen Chiang (江申)

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (國家災害防救科技中心)

Uncertainty of Climate Change - Case studies on Impact Assessment

16:00-16:30

主題演講C5

Chao-Tzuen Cheng (鄭兆尊)

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (國家災害防救科技中心)

Results of 5-km resolution dynamical downscaling for the TCCIP project

主題演講D5

Tai-Wen Hsu (許泰文)

Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University (成功大學水利及海洋工程學系)

A study of adaptation capacity of coastal disasters due to climate change in order to strengthen southwest area of Taiwan

16:30-16:50

Discussion綜 合 討 論 (前瞻廳)
主持人：Cheng-Ta Chen (陳正達), Chen-Shan Kung (龔誠山), Huang-Hsiung Hsu (許晃雄)

16:50-17:00

閉 幕 式 (主持人：Wei-Fu Yang (楊偉甫 署長) + Liang-Chun Chen (陳亮全 主任)

08:30-09:00

報到

Office : 科學報告與資訊平台  (主持人：林李耀)

09:00-09:10

林李耀／國家災害防救科技中心

臺灣氣候變遷推估與資訊平台建置 (TCCIP) 計畫介紹 (Brief on Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project)

09:10-09:30

許晃雄／中央研究院環境變遷研究中心

2011臺灣氣候變遷科學報告重點摘要 (Summary on 2011 Taiwan Climate Change Science Report)

09:30-10:00

朱容練／國家災害防救科技中心

TCCIP資訊平台簡介 (Introduction of TCCIP information platform)

10:00-10:20

休息

Team 1 : 氣候變遷分析  (主持人：許晃雄)

10:20-10:40

許晃雄／中央研究院環境變遷研究中心

從氣溫變遷診斷夏季與冬季起始、結束與長度的長期變遷趨勢 (Changes in Winter and Summer Duration)

10:40-11:00

盧孟明／中央氣象局氣象科技研究中心

近一百一十年來台灣之極端乾期與變化 (An analysis of the extreme dry spells in Taiwan and its variations during the recent one hundred and ten years)

11:00-11:20

陳昭安／臺灣師範大學地球科學系

全球暖化下降雨在季節、頻率與強度的改變 (Changes in the seasonal cycle, intensity and frequency of precipitation under global warming)

11:20-11:40

洪致文／臺灣師範大學地理學系

臺灣降雨指數 (TRI) 的建立與其分析應用 (The Construction of Taiwan Rainfall Index (TRI) and its Applications)

11:40-12:00

翁叔平／臺灣師範大學地理學系

一個完整的臺灣本島五十年 (1960-2009) 日降水1公里網格資料庫之建置及其應用
(A complete 50-yr (1960-2009) daily gridded 1-km rainfall dataset in Taiwan: Construction and some Applications)

12:00-13:30

午餐

Team 2 : 降尺度技術發表 (主持人：陳正達)

13:30-13:50

陳正達／臺灣師範大學海洋環境科技研究所

以統計方法提供 IPCC 氣候模式對台灣未來氣候變遷推估的區域細節與幾率分佈 (Regionalization of the Probabilistic IPCC AR4 Climate Projection over Taiwan using Statistical downscaling)

13:50-14:10

陳昭銘／高雄海洋科技大學海事資訊科技研究所

IPCC AR4預測之台灣未來夏季氣候之變化特性 (Salient features of future summer climate in Taiwan projected by the IPCC AR4)

14:10-14:30

林傳堯／中央研究院環境變遷研究中心

Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios for Taiwan: Results from ECHAM5 Dynamical Downscaling

14:30-14:50

鄭兆尊／國家災害防救科技中心
臺灣地區颱風降雨的推估：MRI-JMA全球氣候模式動力降尺度的結果(Precipitation change over Taiwan area: results of dynamical downscaling using MRI-JMA AGCM output. )

14:50-15:10

休息

Team 3 : 氣候變異災害衝擊 (主持人：葉克家)

15:10-15:30

陳永明／國家災害防救科技中心

臺灣極端降雨颱風變異趨勢分析 (The Climatic Variability and Tendency of Extreme Rainfall Typhoon in Taiwan)

15:30-15:50

江　申／國家災害防救科技中心

氣候變遷對臺灣水文設計衝擊影響及其不確定性研究 (Climate Change Impact to Hydrologic Design in Taiwan and its Uncertainty)

15:50-16:10

陳韻如／國家災害防救科技中心

氣候變遷對水資源衝擊與不確定性評估 (Impact and Uncertainty of climate change on water resource in Taiwan)

16:10-16:30

劉俊志／國家災害防救科技中心

氣候變遷研究之不確定性分析研究 (A review of uncertainty of climate change studies)

16:30-17:00

綜合討論

2011/12/08

2011/12/08　教育訓練

時間

議程

08:30-09:00

報到

09:00-09:20

長官致詞

09:20-10:20

課程一

Jeff Harris & Christopher Dunn

新版HEC模式介紹

10:20-10:50

休息

10:50-11:50

課程二

王文祿 博士

全球氣候變遷趨勢下因應巨災型洪災對策之研究

11:50-13:30

午餐

13:30-14:30

課程三

劉子明 博士

強化南部水資源分區因應氣候變遷水資源管理調適能力研究

14:30-15:00

休息

15:00-16:00

課程四

蔡文豪 經理

氣候變遷下異常事件對既有水庫安全風險與改善策略研究