Data Service / Atlas of Taiwan Climate Change Key Indices
AR5 Statistical Downscaling Edition Hydrological Indices AR6 Statistical Downscaling Edition

Q1. For the future projection, what are the near-, mid-, and long-term periods classification based on?

The classification follows on IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), with the near, mid, and long term periods are 2016–2035, 2046–2065, and 2081–2100, respectively.

Q2. What models provide these projection information in the future?

These results are based on CMIP5 model outputs. For each warming scenarios, it consists of different climate model experiments: RCP 2.6 (22), RCP 4.5 (30), RCP 6.0 (17), and RCP 8.5 (33). (Table A).

Table A Models’ daily data after statistical downscaling, including historical climate models (i.e. the base period) and four groups of global warming scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). (√: Available information)

Model Organization Historical RCP26 RCP45 RCP60 RCP85
ACCESS1-0 CSIRO-BOM √   √   √
ACCESS1-3 CSIRO-BOM √   √   √
bcc-csm1-1 BCC √ √ √ √ √
bcc-csm1-1m BCC √ √ √ √ √
BNU-ESM BNU √ √ √   √
CanESM2 CCCMA √ √ √   √
CCSM4 NCAR √ √ √ √ √
CESM1-BGC NCAR √   √   √
CESM1-CAM5 NCAR √ √ √ √ √
CMCC-CESM CMCC √       √
CMCC-CM CMCC √   √   √
CMCC-CMS CMCC √   √    
CNRM-CM5 CNRM-CERFACS √ √ √   √
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 CSIRO-QCCCE √ √ √ √ √
EC-EARTH ICHEC √       √
FGOALS-g2 LASG-CESS √ √ √   √
GFDL-CM3 NOAA-GFDL √ √   √ √
GFDL-ESM2G NOAA-GFDL √ √ √ √ √
GFDL-ESM2M NOAA-GFDL √   √ √ √
HadGEM2-AO MOHC √ √ √ √ √
HadGEM2-CC MOHC √   √   √
HadGEM2_ES MOHC √ √ √ √ √
inmcm4 INM √   √   √
IPSL-CM5A-LR IPSL √ √ √ √ √
IPSL-CM5A-MR IPSL √ √ √ √ √
IPSL-CM5B-LR IPSL √   √   √
MIROC5 MIROC √ √ √ √ √
MIROC-ESM MIROC √ √ √ √ √
MIROC-ESM-CHEM MIROC √ √ √ √ √
MPI-ESM-LR MPI-M √ √ √   √
MPI-ESM-MR MPI-M √ √ √   √
MRI-CGCM3 MRI √ √ √ √ √
MRI-ESM1 MRI √       √
NorESM1-M NCC √ √ √ √ √
Total 34 22 30 17 33

Q3. Is there any application for these key indices?

This atlas referenced the Expert team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) (Kart et al., 1999; Peterson, T.C., and Coauthors, 2001) established by the WMO. Sorted key indices-related applications are as follows (Table B).

Table B Climate indices-related applications.

Indicator Rationale Reference
RX5DAY A measure of short-term precipitation intensity Potential flood indicator Peterson, T.C., and Coauthors (2001)
SDII A simple measure of precipitation intensity
CDD Effects on vegetation and ecosystems Potential drought indicator A decrease would reflect a wetter climate if change was due to more frequent wet days Frich et al (1996)
R10mm A direct measure of the number of very wet days. This indicator is highly correlated with total annual and seasonal precipitation in most climates
Tn90p A direct measure of the number of warm nights. This indicator could reflect potential harmful effects of the absence of nocturnal cooling, a main contributor to heat related stress Peterson, T.C., and Coauthors (2001)
HWDI Linked with mortality statistics