ARK / Water Resources Hazard Maps
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Water Resources Northern RCP4.5 Mid-Century Composite Index

Under the IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 scenario, hazard indicator values for watersheds in the northern region were projected for the mid-21st century (2036–2065), and the rates of change were calculated relative to the baseline period (1976–2005). Results from 29 GCM ensembles indicate that, for watersheds in the northern region:

．The mean rate of change in the annual average precipitation indicator is 13%, with an inter-model spread ranging from 4% to 20%.

．The mean rate of change in the frequency of dry years is −9%, with an inter-model spread ranging from −56% to 46%.

．The mean rate of change in the annual average number of non-rainfall days is 4%, with an inter-model spread ranging from −1% to 13%.

．The mean rate of change in spring rainfall is −4%, with an inter-model spread ranging from −11% to 5%.

．The mean rate of change in Meiyu (plum rain) season precipitation is 14%, with an inter-model spread ranging from 2% to 26%.

．The mean rate of change in typhoon-season precipitation is 23%, with an inter-model spread ranging from 3% to 39%.

．The mean rate of change in autumn precipitation is 15%, with an inter-model spread ranging from −8% to 32%.

．The mean rate of change in winter precipitation is 6%, with an inter-model spread ranging from −7% to 18%.

(Inter-model spread is defined as the interquartile range, i.e., the first and third quartiles.)

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