其他服務 / 會議與活動 / 2010氣候變遷國際研討會
緣起
臺灣處於西北太平洋地區颱風侵襲的主要路徑上，極易受到天然災害影響。雖然我國的應變救災工作近年來已有明顯的成效， 然而在氣候及環境變遷的大環境下，災害風險可能提高，現有的減災規劃、工程設施及國土環境政策等也可能面臨更為嚴峻的 挑戰。近年來極端降雨、颱風事件等劇烈災變天氣的出現次數相當頻繁，未來也可能出現超乎現有經驗之大規模災害或新類型 災害，政策規劃與決策者必須積極面對此一變化及趨勢。為此，政府各部門已積極推動相關氣候變遷調適之政策規劃與擬定策 略，然而目前尚缺乏具有共識之未來氣候變遷推估情境來評估上述諸多的可能性，並據以提供各行政部門擬定氣候變遷調適政策。
臺灣氣候變遷推估與資訊平台計畫」（Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project, TCCIP） 結合中央研究院環境變遷研究中心、中央氣象局與國家災害防救科技中心及國內氣候變遷研究學者，進行臺灣區域氣候變遷分析與未來推估、降尺度技術發展以及極端氣候變異與災害衝擊評估等工作。
此次研討會邀請日本氣候變動革新計畫（KAKUSHIN PROGRAM）成員及歐美學者進行氣候變遷與衝擊研究之學術交流，並發表TCCIP計畫年度研究成果。
主題
◎ 氣候觀測、模擬與推估
A. Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation and Projection
◎ 動力與統計降尺度
B. Dynamical and Statistical downscaling of Climate Simulation
◎ 氣候變遷衝擊評估
C. Impact Assessment: impact on disasters and water resources
地點
臺北縣新店市北新路三段200號15F
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November 1, 2010 |
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08:30 - 09:15 |
Registration |
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09:15 - 09:35 |
Welcome and Opening Remarks Chair: Dr. Liang-Chun Chen 國家災害防救科技中心 陳主任亮全 |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳)
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Dr. Cheng-Hong Chen, Deputy Minister, National Science Council 國科會陳副主委正宏 Dr. Tien-Chiang Yeh, Deputy Director-General, Central Weather Bureau 中央氣象局葉副局長天降 Dr. Shaw Liu, Director, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica 中央研究院環境變遷研究中心劉主任紹臣 |
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09:35 - 09:45 |
Group Photo |
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09:45 - 10:00 |
Introduction of TCCIP Project Dr. Lee-Yaw Lin, Deputy Executive Secretary, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction 國家災害防救科技中心林副執行秘書李耀 |
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10:00 - 10: 25 |
Tea break |
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10:25 - 12:05 |
A-1：Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation, and Projection |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Masato Sugi 杉正人 |
Future changes in typhoons frequency and intensity projected by the new 20km AGCM |
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Yohei Yamada 山田洋平 |
Relationships between tropical cyclogeneses and large-scale environment in global cloud-system resolving and high-resolution hydrostatic model |
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Kenji Kamiguchi 上口賢治 |
Future changes in precipitation characteristics projected by the 20-km-grid MRI-AGCM |
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Chia Chou 周佳 |
Atmospheric stability and weakening of tropical circulation |
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12:05 - 14:00 |
Lunch |
(Lecture Classroom I, II, and Conference Room II) 第一、二講習室及第二會議室 |
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14:00 - 15:40 |
A-2：Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation, and Projection |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Shaw Liu 劉紹臣 |
Changes in precipitation extremes in a warming globe: comparison of observations to climate models and operational weather models |
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Aiguo Dai 戴愛國 |
Drought under global warming |
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Mong-Ming Lu 盧孟明 |
Variations of annual frequency of extreme rainfall events in Taiwan during the period of 1951-2005 |
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Hsin-Hsing Chia 賈新興 |
The relationship of the tropical cyclone activity in Western North Pacific and the typhoon approaching Taiwan in this decade |
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15:40 - 16:00 |
Tea break |
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16:00 - 17:15 |
A-3：Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation, and Projection |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Michael Wehner |
The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme precipitation events in a global atmosphere model |
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Chung-Hsiung Sui 隋中興 |
Observed low-frequency climate oscillations and regional rainfall variability in East Asia |
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Huang-Hsiung Hsu 許晃雄 |
Identification of a multi-decadal teleconnection pattern in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere |
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November 2, 2010 |
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09:00 - 10:15 |
B-1：Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Climate Simulation |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Filippo Giorgi |
Regional climate modeling as a tool for impact assessment application: Status and perspectives |
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Cheng-Ta Chen 陳正達 |
Regionalization of the IPCC AR4 climate projections over East Asia and Taiwan with statistical downscaling |
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Jau-Ming Chen 陳昭銘 |
Rainfall variability in Taiwan modulated by monsoon and tropical cyclone |
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10:15 – 10:35 |
Tea break |
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10:35 - 11:50 |
B-2：Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Climate Simulation |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Akio Kitoh 鬼頭昭雄 |
An overview of the KAKUSHIN Team-3 "projection of the change in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution atmospheric models" |
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Jung-Lien Chu 朱容練 |
Projection of local rainfall using SVD-based downscaling scheme |
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Chih-wen Hung 洪致文 |
The 20th Century Taiwan precipitation data and the Taiwan rainfall index |
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11:50 - 13:30 |
Lunch |
(Lecture Classroom I, II, and Conference Room II) 第一、二講習室及第二會議室 |
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13:30 - 15:10 |
C-1：Impact Assessment: Impact on disasters and water resources Session Chair: Kazuhiko Fukami深見和彥 |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Eiichi Nakakita 中北英一 |
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on watersheds in a disaster environment under KAKUSHIN program |
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Ching-Pin Tung 童慶斌 |
Strengthening water supply system adaptive capacity to climate change in Gaoping river basin |
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Yasuto Tachikawa 立川康人 |
Projection of river discharge in Japan under climate change scenario |
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Hirohiko Ishikawa 石川裕彥 |
Estimation of possible maximum damage caused by tropical cyclone |
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15:10 - 15:30 |
Tea break |
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15:30 - 17:10 |
C-2：Impact Assessment: Impact on disasters and water resources Session Chair: Ching-Pin Tung童慶斌 |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Tai-Wen Hsu 許泰文 |
A study of adaptation capacity of coastal disasters due to climate change in southwest area of Taiwan |
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Kazuhiko Fukami 深見和彥 |
ICHARM's research activities for climate change impact analysis and adaptation - KAKUSHIN project & IFAS development |
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Pat Yeh 葉仁風 |
Characterization of atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological cycle changes and their interactions |
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Shen Chiang 江申 |
Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resource in Taiwan |
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November 3, 2010 |
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09:00 - 10:15 |
B-3：Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Climate Simulation |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Sachie Kanada 金田幸惠 |
Projection of the future change in precipitation in the vicinity of Japan during the rainy season using a 5-km-mesh regional climate model |
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Masuo Nakano 中野滿壽男 |
Future changes of precipitation associated with typhoons around Japan simulated by a 5-km-mesh regional climate model |
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Chao-Tzuen Cheng 鄭兆尊 |
Test of dynamical downscaling for TCCIP project |
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10:15 – 10:35 |
Tea break |
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10:35 - 12:15 |
C-3：Impact Assessment: Impact on disasters and water resources Session Chair: Eiichi Nakakita中北英一 |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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Pao-Shan Yu 游保杉 |
Assessment of climate change impacts on flood and drought disasters |
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Nobuhito Mori 森信人 |
Wave climate change projection at the end of 21st century |
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Daizo Tsutsumi 堤大三 |
Analysis of triggering mechanism of deep seated landslide induced by heavy rainfall |
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Lien-Kuang Chen 陳聯光 |
Morakot typhoon : capacity of rainfall to landslide |
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12:15 - 12:20 |
Closing Address Chair of Workshop Organizing Committee: Dr. Huang-Hsiung Hsu Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, National Taiwan University 研討會籌備委員會召集人、臺灣大學大氣科學系：許晃雄教授 |
International Conference Hall (國際會議廳) |
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12:20 - 13:30 |
Lunch |
Lecture Classroom I, Conference Room II (第一講習室、第二會議室) |
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13:30 - 15:30 |
TCCIP-KAKUSHIN Discussion (by invitation only) |
Conference Room 3 (第三會議室)
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| 議題 | 講者 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| An overview of the KAKUSHIN Team-3 "projection of the change in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution atmospheric models" | Akio Kitoh | 簡報 | |
| Analysis of triggering mechanism of deep seated landslide induced by heavy rainfall | Daizo Tsutsumi | 簡報 | |
| Atmospheric stability and weakening of tropical circulation | Chia Chou | 簡報 | |
| Changes in precipitation extremes in a warming globe: comparison of observations to climate models and operational weather models | Shaw Liu | 簡報 | |
| Characterization of atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological cycle changes and their interactions | Pat Yeh | 簡報 | |
| Drought under global warming | Aiguo Dai | 簡報 | |
| Estimation of possible maximum damage caused by tropical cyclone | Hirohiko Ishikawa | 簡報 | |
| Future changes in precipitation characteristics projected by the 20-km-grid MRI-AGCM | Kenji Kamiguchi | 簡報 | |
| Future changes in typhoons frequency and intensity projected by the new 20km AGCM | Masato Sugi | 簡報 | |
| Future changes of precipitation associated with typhoons around Japan simulated by a 5-km-mesh regional climate model | Masuo Nakano | 簡報 | |
| ICHARM's research activities for climate change impact analysis and adaptation - KAKUSHIN project & IFAS development | Kazuhiko Fukami | 簡報 | |
| Identification of a multi-decadal teleconnection pattern in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere | Huang-Hsiung Hsu | 簡報 | |
| Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resource in Taiwan | Shen Chiang | 簡報 | |
| Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on watersheds in a disaster environment under KAKUSHIN program | Eiichi Nakakita | 簡報 | |
| Introduction of TCCIP Project | Lee-Yaw Lin | 簡報 | |
| Projection of local rainfall using SVD-based downscaling scheme | Jung-Lien Chu | 簡報 | |
| Projection of river discharge in Japan under climate change scenario | Yasuto Tachikawa | 簡報 | |
| Projection of the future change in precipitation in the vicinity of Japan during the rainy season using a 5-km-mesh regional climate model | Sachie Kanada | 簡報 | |
| Rainfall variability in Taiwan modulated by monsoon and tropical cyclone | Jau-Ming Chen | 簡報 | |
| Regional climate modeling as a tool for impact assessment application: Status and perspectives | Filippo Giorgi | 簡報 | |
| Regionalization of the IPCC AR4 climate projections over East Asia and Taiwan with statistical downscaling | Cheng-Ta Chen | 簡報 | |
| Relationships between tropical cyclogeneses and large-scale environment in global cloud-system resolving and high-resolution hydrostatic model | Yohei Yamada | 簡報 | |
| Strengthening water supply system adaptive capacity to climate change in Gaoping river basin | Ching-Pin Tung | 簡報 | |
| Test of dynamical downscaling for TCCIP project | Chao-Tzuen Cheng | 簡報 | |
| The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme precipitation events in a global atmosphere model | Michael Wehner | 簡報 | |
| The relationship of the tropical cyclone activity in Western North Pacific and the typhoon approaching Taiwan in this decade | Hsin-Hsing Chia | 簡報 | |
| Wave climate change projection at the end of 21st century | Nobuhito Mori | 簡報 |