關於我們 / 會議與活動 / 2010氣候變遷國際研討會‎

緣起

臺灣處於西北太平洋地區颱風侵襲的主要路徑上,極易受到天然災害影響。雖然我國的應變救災工作近年來已有明顯的成效, 然而在氣候及環境變遷的大環境下,災害風險可能提高,現有的減災規劃、工程設施及國土環境政策等也可能面臨更為嚴峻的 挑戰。近年來極端降雨、颱風事件等劇烈災變天氣的出現次數相當頻繁,未來也可能出現超乎現有經驗之大規模災害或新類型 災害,政策規劃與決策者必須積極面對此一變化及趨勢。為此,政府各部門已積極推動相關氣候變遷調適之政策規劃與擬定策 略,然而目前尚缺乏具有共識之未來氣候變遷推估情境來評估上述諸多的可能性,並據以提供各行政部門擬定氣候變遷調適政策。
臺灣氣候變遷推估與資訊平台計畫」(Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project, TCCIP) 結合中央研究院環境變遷研究中心、中央氣象局與國家災害防救科技中心及國內氣候變遷研究學者,進行臺灣區域氣候變遷分析與未來推估、降尺度技術發展以及極端氣候變異與災害衝擊評估等工作。
此次研討會邀請日本氣候變動革新計畫(KAKUSHIN PROGRAM)成員及歐美學者進行氣候變遷與衝擊研究之學術交流,並發表TCCIP計畫年度研究成果。


主題

◎ 氣候觀測、模擬與推估
   A.    Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation and Projection
◎ 動力與統計降尺度
   B.     Dynamical and Statistical downscaling of Climate Simulation
◎ 氣候變遷衝擊評估
   C.    Impact Assessment: impact on disasters and water resources


地點

臺北縣新店市北新路三段200號15F  

 

 

 

November 1, 2010

08:30 - 09:15

Registration

09:15 - 09:35

Welcome and Opening Remarks

Chair: Dr. Liang-Chun Chen
Director, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

國家災害防救科技中心 陳主任亮全

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

 

Dr. Cheng-Hong Chen, Deputy Minister, National Science Council

國科會陳副主委正宏

Dr. Tien-Chiang Yeh, Deputy Director-General, Central Weather Bureau

中央氣象局葉副局長天降

Dr. Shaw Liu, Director, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica

中央研究院環境變遷研究中心劉主任紹臣

09:35 - 09:45

Group Photo

09:45 - 10:00

Introduction of TCCIP Project

Dr. Lee-Yaw Lin, Deputy Executive Secretary, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

國家災害防救科技中心林副執行秘書李耀

10:00 - 10: 25

Tea break

 

10:25 - 12:05

A-1Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation, and Projection
Session Chair: Michael Wehner

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Masato Sugi

杉正人

Future changes in typhoons frequency and intensity projected by the new 20km AGCM

Yohei Yamada

山田洋平

Relationships between tropical cyclogeneses and large-scale environment in global cloud-system resolving and high-resolution hydrostatic model

Kenji Kamiguchi

上口賢治

Future changes in precipitation characteristics projected by the 20-km-grid MRI-AGCM

Chia Chou

周佳

Atmospheric stability and weakening of tropical circulation

12:05 - 14:00

Lunch

(Lecture Classroom I, II, and Conference Room II)

第一、二講習室及第二會議室

14:00 - 15:40

A-2Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation, and Projection
Session Chair: Masato Sugi
杉正人

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Shaw Liu

劉紹臣

Changes in precipitation extremes in a warming globe: comparison of observations to climate models and operational weather models

Aiguo Dai

戴愛國

Drought under global warming

Mong-Ming Lu

盧孟明

Variations of annual frequency of extreme rainfall events in Taiwan during the period of 1951-2005

Hsin-Hsing Chia

賈新興

The relationship of the tropical cyclone activity in Western North Pacific and the typhoon approaching Taiwan in this decade

15:40 - 16:00

Tea break

16:00 - 17:15

A-3Climate Variability: Observation, Simulation, and Projection
Session Chair: Shaw Liu
劉紹臣

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Michael Wehner

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

Chung-Hsiung Sui

隋中興

Observed low-frequency climate oscillations and regional rainfall variability in East Asia

Huang-Hsiung Hsu

許晃雄

Identification of a multi-decadal teleconnection pattern in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

November 2, 2010

09:00 - 10:15

B-1Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Climate Simulation
Session Chair: Akio Kitoh
鬼頭昭雄

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Filippo Giorgi

Regional climate modeling as a tool for impact assessment application: Status and perspectives

Cheng-Ta Chen

陳正達

Regionalization of the IPCC AR4 climate projections over East Asia and Taiwan with statistical downscaling

Jau-Ming Chen

陳昭銘

Rainfall variability in Taiwan modulated by monsoon and tropical cyclone

10:15 – 10:35

Tea break

10:35 - 11:50

B-2Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Climate Simulation
Session Chair: Cheng-Ta Chen
陳正達

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Akio Kitoh 鬼頭昭雄

An overview of the KAKUSHIN Team-3 "projection of the change in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution atmospheric models"

Jung-Lien Chu

朱容練

Projection of local rainfall using SVD-based downscaling scheme

Chih-wen Hung

洪致文

The 20th Century Taiwan precipitation data and the Taiwan rainfall index

11:50 - 13:30

 

 

Lunch

(Lecture Classroom I, II, and Conference Room II)

第一、二講習室及第二會議室

13:30 - 15:10

C-1Impact Assessment: Impact on disasters and water resources

Session Chair: Kazuhiko Fukami深見和彥

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Eiichi Nakakita

中北英一

Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on watersheds in a disaster environment under KAKUSHIN program

Ching-Pin Tung

童慶斌

Strengthening water supply system adaptive capacity to climate change in Gaoping river basin

Yasuto Tachikawa

立川康人

Projection of river discharge in Japan under climate change scenario

Hirohiko Ishikawa

石川裕彥

Estimation of possible maximum damage caused by tropical cyclone

15:10 - 15:30

Tea break

15:30 - 17:10

C-2Impact Assessment: Impact on disasters and water resources

Session Chair: Ching-Pin Tung童慶斌

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Tai-Wen Hsu

許泰文

A study of adaptation capacity of coastal disasters due to climate change in southwest area of Taiwan

Kazuhiko Fukami

深見和彥

ICHARM's research activities for climate change impact analysis and adaptation - KAKUSHIN project & IFAS development

Pat Yeh

葉仁風

Characterization of atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological cycle changes and their interactions

Shen Chiang

江申

Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resource in Taiwan

November 3, 2010

09:00 - 10:15

B-3Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Climate Simulation
Session Chair: Filippo Giorgi

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Sachie Kanada

金田幸惠

Projection of the future change in precipitation in the vicinity of Japan during the rainy season using a 5-km-mesh regional climate model

Masuo Nakano

中野滿壽男

Future changes of precipitation associated with typhoons around Japan simulated by a 5-km-mesh regional climate model

Chao-Tzuen Cheng

鄭兆尊

Test of dynamical downscaling for TCCIP project

10:15 – 10:35

Tea break

10:35 - 12:15

C-3Impact Assessment: Impact on disasters and water resources

Session Chair: Eiichi Nakakita中北英一

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

Pao-Shan Yu

游保杉

Assessment of climate change impacts on flood and drought disasters

Nobuhito Mori

森信人

Wave climate change projection at the end of 21st century

Daizo Tsutsumi

堤大三

Analysis of triggering mechanism of deep seated landslide induced by heavy rainfall

Lien-Kuang Chen

陳聯光

Morakot typhoon : capacity of rainfall to landslide

12:15 - 12:20

Closing Address

Chair of Workshop Organizing Committee: Dr. Huang-Hsiung Hsu

Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, National Taiwan University

研討會籌備委員會召集人、臺灣大學大氣科學系:許晃雄教授

International Conference Hall

(國際會議廳)

12:20 - 13:30

Lunch

Lecture Classroom I, Conference Room II

(第一講習室、第二會議室)

13:30 - 15:30

TCCIP-KAKUSHIN Discussion (by invitation only)

Conference Room 3

(第三會議室)

 

議題講者檔案影片
An overview of the KAKUSHIN Team-3 "projection of the change in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution atmospheric models"Akio Kitoh簡報 
Analysis of triggering mechanism of deep seated landslide induced by heavy rainfallDaizo Tsutsumi簡報 
Atmospheric stability and weakening of tropical circulationChia Chou簡報 
Changes in precipitation extremes in a warming globe: comparison of observations to climate models and operational weather modelsShaw Liu簡報 
Characterization of atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological cycle changes and their interactionsPat Yeh簡報 
Drought under global warmingAiguo Dai簡報 
Estimation of possible maximum damage caused by tropical cycloneHirohiko Ishikawa簡報 
Future changes in precipitation characteristics projected by the 20-km-grid MRI-AGCMKenji Kamiguchi簡報 
Future changes in typhoons frequency and intensity projected by the new 20km AGCMMasato Sugi簡報 
Future changes of precipitation associated with typhoons around Japan simulated by a 5-km-mesh regional climate modelMasuo Nakano簡報 
ICHARM's research activities for climate change impact analysis and adaptation - KAKUSHIN project & IFAS developmentKazuhiko Fukami簡報 
Identification of a multi-decadal teleconnection pattern in the extratropical Northern HemisphereHuang-Hsiung Hsu簡報 
Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resource in TaiwanShen Chiang簡報 
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on watersheds in a disaster environment under KAKUSHIN programEiichi Nakakita簡報 
Introduction of TCCIP ProjectLee-Yaw Lin簡報 
Projection of local rainfall using SVD-based downscaling schemeJung-Lien Chu簡報 
Projection of river discharge in Japan under climate change scenarioYasuto Tachikawa簡報 
Projection of the future change in precipitation in the vicinity of Japan during the rainy season using a 5-km-mesh regional climate modelSachie Kanada簡報 
Rainfall variability in Taiwan modulated by monsoon and tropical cycloneJau-Ming Chen簡報 
Regional climate modeling as a tool for impact assessment application: Status and perspectivesFilippo Giorgi簡報 
Regionalization of the IPCC AR4 climate projections over East Asia and Taiwan with statistical downscalingCheng-Ta Chen簡報 
Relationships between tropical cyclogeneses and large-scale environment in global cloud-system resolving and high-resolution hydrostatic modelYohei Yamada簡報 
Strengthening water supply system adaptive capacity to climate change in Gaoping river basinChing-Pin Tung簡報 
Test of dynamical downscaling for TCCIP projectChao-Tzuen Cheng簡報 
The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme precipitation events in a global atmosphere modelMichael Wehner簡報 
The relationship of the tropical cyclone activity in Western North Pacific and the typhoon approaching Taiwan in this decadeHsin-Hsing Chia簡報 
Wave climate change projection at the end of 21st centuryNobuhito Mori簡報