資料服務 / 未來推估
*本頁面於2023年6月5日進行更新
以下分別針對互動圖表/未來推估使用的觀測資料及模式資料進行說明：
觀測資料
使用TCCIP所產製的5KM網格化觀測日資料(已下架)，變數包含平均溫、最高溫、最低溫(單位：°C)及降雨量(單位：毫米/天(mm/day))，資料範圍為臺灣包含部分離島地區(119.2°E–122.15°E ; 21.5°N–25.5°N)，資料時間為1960-2020年，網格解析度為0.05°×0.05°(近似5KM)。
模式資料
參考IPCC AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)使用的全球氣候模式，選取源自20個研究中心所開發的模式，共有34組完整的模式模擬結果，模式詳細介紹見表1。本計畫利用統計降尺度方法，產製得到AR5統計降尺度日資料，變數包含日平均溫、日最高溫、日最低溫(單位：°C)及日降雨量(單位：mm/day)，資料空間範圍及網格解析度與觀測資料相同，資料時間分為歷史模擬1960-2005年及未來推估2006-2100年。各個情境的模式數量分別為：RCP2.6有22個、RCP4.5有30個、RCP6.0有17個、RCP8.5有33個模式。
溫度未來推估的改變量(單位°C)、降雨未來推估的改變率(單位%)，其中改變量或改變率指的都是模式未來推估相對於基期(1986–2005年平均值)的變化程度。註：改變量=未來推估值–基期平均值，改變率=(未來推估值–基期平均值)/基期平均值*100%
表1 34個氣候模式說明(註：不是每個模式都有模擬所有情境的結果，因此各情境的模式數量並不同)
| # | 英文縮寫 | 解析度(度) | 模式中心 | 英文完整名稱 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACCESS1.0 | 1.25° × 1.875° | CSIRO-BOM, Australia | Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator 1.0 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 2 | ACCESS1.3 | 1.25° × 1.875° | CSIRO-BOM, Australia | Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator 1.3 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 3 | BCC-CSM1.1 | ~2.8° ×2.8125° | BCC, China | Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 4 | BCC-CSM1.1m | ~1.12° × 1.125° | BCC, China | Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1, moderate resolution | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 5 | BNU-ESM | ~2.8° × 2.8125° | BNU, China | Beijing Normal University Earth System Model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 6 | CanESM2 | ~2.8° × 2.8125° | CCCma, Canada | Canadian Earth System Model version 2 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 7 | CCSM4 | ~0.94° × 1.25° | NCAR, USA | Community Climate System Model version 4.0 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 8 | CESM1-BGC | ~0.94° × 1.25° | NSF-DOE-NCAR, USA | Community Earth System Model version 1.0 with Biogeochemistry | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 9 | CESM1-CAM5 | ~0.94° × 1.25° | NSF-DOE-NCAR, USA | Community Earth System Model version 1.0 with Community Atmosphere Model version 5 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 10 | CMCC-CESM | ~3.7° × 3.75° | CMCC, Italy | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Carbon Earth System Model | ||||
| 11 | CMCC-CM | ~0.75° × 0.75° | CMCC, Italy | CMCC Climate Model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 12 | CMCC-CMS | ~1.9° × 1.875° | CMCC, Italy | CMCC Climate Model with a resolved Stratosphere | ||||
| 13 | CNRM-CM5 | ~1.4° × ~1.4° | CNRM-CERFACS, France | Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) Climate Model version 5 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 14 | CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | ~1.9° × 1.875° | CSIRO-QCCCE, Australia | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Mk3.6 Model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 15 | EC-EARTH | ~1.12° × 1.125° | ICHEC, Europe | European Community Earth system model | ||||
| 16 | FGOALS-g2 | ~3.05° × 2.8125° | LASG-CESS, China | Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 17 | GFDL-CM3 | 2° × 2.5° | NOAA-GFDL, USA | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Climate Model version 3 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 18 | GFDL-ESM2G | ~2° × 2.5° | NOAA-GFDL, USA | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Earth System Model couple GOLD ocean model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 19 | GFDL-ESM2M | ~2° × 2.5° | NOAA-GFDL, USA | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Earth System Model couple MOM4.1 ocean model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 20 | HadGEM2-AO | 1.25° × 1.875° | NIMR-KMA, Korea | Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 - Atmosphere | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 21 | HadGEM2-CC | 1.25° × 1.875° | MOHC, UK | Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 - Carbon Cycle | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 22 | HadGEM2-ES | 1.25° × 1.875° | MOHC, UK | Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 - Earth System | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 23 | INM-CM4 | 1.5° × 2° | INM, Russia | Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Climate Model Version 4 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 24 | IPSL-CM5A-LR | ~1.9° × 3.75° | IPSL, France | Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model, with LMDZ5A atmosphere model - low resolution | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 25 | IPSL-CM5A-MR | ~1.3° × 2.5° | IPSL, France | Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model, with LMDZ5A atmosphere model - mid resolution | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 26 | IPSL-CM5B-LR | ~1.9° × 3.75° | IPSL, France | Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model, with LMDZ5B atmosphere model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ||
| 27 | MIROC5 | ~1.4° × ~1.4° | AORI/NIES/JAMSTEC, Japan | Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 28 | MIROC-ESM | ~2.8° × 2.8125° | AORI/NIES/JAMSTEC, Japan | Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate - Earth System Model | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 29 | MIROC-ESM-CHEM | ~2.8° × 2.8125° | AORI/NIES/JAMSTEC, Japan | Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate - Earth System Model, Chemistry Coupled | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 30 | MPI-ESM-LR | ~1.9° × 1.875° | MPI-M, Germany | Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 31 | MPI-ESM-MR | ~1.9° × 1.875° | MPI-M, Germany | Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - mixed resolution | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 32 | MRI-CGCM3 | ~1.12° × 1.125° | MRI, Japan | Meteorological Research Institute, Coupled General Circulation Model version 3 | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 33 | MRI-ESM1 | ~1.12° × 1.125° | MRI, Japan | Meteorological Research Institute, Earth System Model version 1 | ||||
| 34 | NorESM1-M | ~1.9° × 2.5° | NCC, Norway | Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 - medium resolution | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ | ⚫ |
| 模式總數量 | 22 | 29 | 22 | 29 | ||||